First off, if you follow F1, you know that Microsoft is already a party of it all. They are the sole manufacturer of the ECU (I believe software only) for ALL the F1 cars. So, Microsoft has a foot in the door.
Why do I think Microsoft should get this license? Because Formula 1 is HUGE in Europe and Asia. The majority of races for F1 are in Europe with more expansion into Asia as well as the Middle East. These are markets where Microsoft could use some help...well, in some cases a lot.
What is another reason? They can (essentially) strap an F1 game to the underpinnings of Forza 2. How many people agree that Forza was a pretty realistic game for the 360? Now give the team another year, graphics will improve as well as all the math behind the calculations.
Microsoft....get the license!