Chris Lanier's Blog : Blu-ray, Xbox

My Twelfth Post on Xbox 360 Not Getting Blu-ray

chrisl — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 01:21:00 GMT

I never thought I would get a dozen posts out of this topic, but what do you know! Some said I was dead wrong when I predicted that Microsoft wasn’t planning on adding Blu-ray to the Xbox 360. After covering the issue from every different angle possible (Here, Here, Here, Here, Here, Here, Here, Here, Here, Here, Here) I still couldn’t come up with a good reason why it was in Microsoft’s best interest to add Blu-ray to the Xbox. It isn’t hard to come up with reasons why potential or existing Xbox 360 buyers want Blu-ray, but taking a Microsoft perspective is a bit different.

Cut to today, Forbes has a story that quotes Shane Kim, vice president of strategy and business development for Microsoft Entertainment division saying “I can categorically say that we're not working on a Blu-Ray player for Xbox 360.”

What is Microsoft’s focus? Digital distribution. As I’ve talked about either today Netflix adds just another option for downloads/streams on the Xbox 360 (but not Media Center Extenders) and while I don’t think Microsoft should just focus on digital distribution you know that is their goal and it isn’t going to change.

Bach Says No to Blu-ray in Xbox 720, First Party ZunePhone

chrisl — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 23:39:00 GMT

We don’t even have to wait until tomorrow to find out that the Xbox 360 isn’t getting Blu-ray. Why? Because Robbie Bach was asked if Microsoft had plans for Blu-ray to appear in the next generation Xbox (Via Engadget) and answered “No. There is nothing to even talk about right now with regard to the next generation. That is so far out that there isn't anything to talk about.” Now I’m sure some of you will tell me that he didn’t deny Xbox 360 with Blu-ray and instead just talked about the next generation, but trust me Blu-ray is not coming to the Xbox 360 tomorrow or anytime soon. He also touches on Xbox 360 lasting longer than the previous Xbox as I also talked about today.

Robbie also went on record again saying the ZunePhone (eg. first party hardware) isn’t happening, but does suggest that a Phone+Zune software might be on the way as I suggested a few months ago. I can actually say it will be happening and that I know Microsoft is currently trying to get OEMs on board. The Zune software (or a variation of it) will appear on several different OEMs handsets. Not sure if it will just be Windows Mobile, but I’d love to see them open it up to other platforms.

Lastly on the mobile side, Bach said “We don't make phones ourselves. We don't have any plans to make phones ourselves” which I thought was interesting considering Microsoft now owns Danger. Danger isn’t a hardware company per-say, but I guess it can shine a bit of light on what Microsoft isn’t planning to do with their new acquisition.

No, Xbox 360 Isn’t Getting Blu-ray on Monday

chrisl — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 15:43:00 GMT

Another day, another horrible rumor. Microsoft will not announce that the Xbox 360 is getting Blu-ray on Monday.

This latest rumor does give me a good chance to cover Shane Kim of Microsoft Game Studios saying the Xbox 360 is set to last seven years. This would clearly go against what I’ve been saying about the shelf life of the Xbox 360 playing into Blu-ray considerations, so I’ll admit that I’m wrong on that front. That said, I still don’t see an Xbox Blu-ray addition near-term.

If they are going to stick with the Xbox 360 and focus on games, the community aspect, media downloads, etc then a Blu-ray Disc drive still doesn’t fit into their plans. An internal drive isn’t can’t be used for games, an external drive is not going to allow the Xbox 360 to compete with the price of the PS3. There is still little advantage from Microsoft’s perspective to do Blu-ray in the Xbox 360.

Console design and graphics are getting to the point where the Xbox 720 will most likely not blow you away in comparison to the Xbox 360. What has more chance of bringing in gamers are new experiences, which is why you will see that Xbox motion sensing controller before year’s end. On the media side, downloads are still Microsoft’s business more than ever, Blu-ray isn’t.

Update: Bach says no Blu-ray on Xbox 720

Microsoft: “No Plans to Introduce a Blu-ray Drive for Xbox 360”

chrisl — Mon, 05 May 2008 18:12:00 GMT

I hope you didn’t really think Microsoft was doing an Xbox 360 with Blu-ray, because they are once again denying it. So, what do you think is really going on?

These sites are flat out making up the rumors to drive web traffic
OEMs think constant reports will help get them a contract, suggesting they would be able to provide the drives at $xx to Microsoft.
Microsoft has expressed interest in Blu-ray Disc drives for the Xbox 360, reports are truly leaking out.
Microsoft has expressed interest in Blu-ray Disc drives for the “Xbox” (360 not implied, meaning it could be Xbox 720).
Other – Let me know

Why I’m I Still Posting About Xbox 360 With Blu-ray?

chrisl — Sun, 04 May 2008 20:21:00 GMT

Previous coverage: Here, Here, Here, Here, Here, and Here.

Latest rumor, ASUS subsidiary Pegatron has reportedly won the contract to “assemble the Xbox 360 with Blu-ray Disc ROM drive” according to Economic Daily News (Chinese).

I’ve covered the Xbox 360 Blu-ray rumors since they started, and I think I’ve made my case pretty clear. In my opinion it doesn’t make sense for Microsoft to include Blu-ray in the Xbox 360. It doesn’t make sense for Microsoft to even offer an external Blu-ray drive. If doesn’t even really make sense to do a single new SKU for Blu-ray, but lets look at it from another angle. Forget the technical aspect, forget what Microsoft wants or doesn’t want, let’s look at it from the consumer aspect and from Microsoft's price perspective.

External Blu-ray Scenarios

(I’m blindly assuming that Microsoft would sell an external Blu-ray Disc drive for $150, which would most likely be a loss for Microsoft. Remember that HD DVD originally shipped for $200 with Toshiba taking the huge loss. Other HD DVD drives where shipping for $300+ at the time. This only takes into account drive prices, loss on the software/licensing side not included.)

Playstation 3 40GB (include Blu-ray) = $400
Playstation 3 80GB (includes Blu-ray) = $500
~~Xbox 360 Arcade ($280) + External Blu-ray Disc Drive ($150) = $430~~
Xbox 360 Premium 20GB ($350) + External Blu-ray Disc Drive ($150) = $500
Xbox 360 Elite 120GB ($450) + External Blu-ray Disc Drive ($150) = $600

Once again, the Xbox 360 Arcade is targeted at casual gamers, so I’m going to leave it out of the picture (but note the total price is still more than a PS3). I’d also remind everyone that specs are the only thing that matters. Everyone keeps telling me Microsoft needs Blu-ray to compete with the PS3. Unless you’re matching the basic specs, you’re not competing.

This means you can get a PS3 with double the hard drive space for $100 cheaper. Point goes to the PS3 if you are talking about competing. You don’t gain anything by offering an external Blu-ray Disc drive, the PS3 is still a better deal all around.

For current Xbox 360 owners the concept of an external Blu-ray Disc drive is the most appealing. Even at $200 it would be the cheapest Blu-ray Disc Player on the market, but why exactly does Microsoft care about this situation? It doesn’t boost Xbox 360 sales, and they are most likely losing money on the drive to start with. I understand why current owners would be interested, but it just doesn’t benefit Microsoft at all.

Internal Blu-ray Scenarios

Considering the Xbox 360 Arcade is again targeted to casual gamers, the chance of Microsoft integrating Blu-ray into it doesn’t exist. UNO and Pac-Man players generally are not Blu-ray owners.

Microsoft already needs to upgrade the Premium to a larger hard drive to directly compete with the PS3 at its 40GB entry price. Put a Blu-ray Disc drive in the current 20GB, sell it at a loss for $350 and the PS3 is still a better deal on paper. Point goes to the PS3.

Upgrade the Xbox 360 to at least 40GB and add internal Blu-ray (selling at a loss again) and the Xbox 360 would finally be able to compete directly. So far this is the only feasible option from a consumer perspective, of course that replies on Microsoft taking the hit for Blu-ray and upgrading the hard drive at the same time. If Microsoft ups the price (figuring 40GB and Blu-ray) your price would be equal to the 40GB PS3 (and I’ve covered reasons why the PS3 is a better Blu-ray Disc Player to start with).

The Xbox 360 Elite is supposed to be Elite, right? Is Microsoft going to alienate all Xbox 360 Elite owners by doing another SKU that is truly the Elite one? The one advantage the Elite has is the large hard drive, but once you cross the $500 price tag your product isn’t going to push any units. This would mean Microsoft takes the hit for the Blu-ray Disc drive and doesn’t pass any on the consumer. Not likely.

Exclusive Titles

None of the above takes into account people buying either the PS3 or Xbox 360 for exclusive titles. These people are going to get whichever system has their exclusive titles, matched features might sway them one way, but if Halo is your game then you are buying the Xbox 360 no matter what. If Grand Turismo is your game, your buying the PS3 no matter what.

Previous HD DVD Owners

A larger percent of the 300,000 people who purchase the external HD DVD drive still have a bad taste in their mouth. This might be eased by Blu-ray officially being the winner, but Xbox 360 Premium ($350) + Xbox HD DVD ($200) + External Xbox Blu-ray ($150) + Accessories = $700+ for a game console that is three years old (earliest release of such a drive would be years end, console turnover time has been around four years).

Growing User Awareness Against Xbox 360 with Blu-ray

The best part of all of these rumors is growing user awareness that the Xbox 360 with Blu-ray doesn’t make sense. Check out the comments on Engadget and Engadget HD, the vast majority of the comments (especially the ones ranked high) are going against buying, needing, or wanting an Xbox 360 with Blu-ray. Once again, I just don’t see how this would make any sense.

Console Redesigns

One of the newest ideas that has been thrown out is Microsoft including Blu-ray in the Xbox 360 when they really start the console redesign process to cut costs in manufacturing. I can see this happening if they are planning Blu-ray for the Xbox 720, but if they are not then I don't see why they would waste the time. As Blu-ray drives fall in price, they will become the standard. I don't think we are there just yet, but in another year or so the prices will be around of that OEM DVD drives today. If Microsoft is doing Blu-ray for the Xbox 720, you might as well throw it into the redeisgned Xbox 360 as well (unless they hold out and use Blu-ray as a feature to sell Xbox 720). At current prices this story is much different.

Update: Microsoft: “No Plans to Introduce a Blu-ray Drive for Xbox 360” (5/5/08)

Xbox 360 Blu-ray Shot Down Again By Microsoft

chrisl — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 23:03:00 GMT

You didn’t think Lite-On was really manufacturing Blu-ray Disc drives for the Xbox 360, did you? It doesn’t seem that Microsoft put too much stock into it, supposedly being quoted flat out with “No. Lite-On is not manufacturing Blu-ray drives for Xbox 360.”

~~The only thing that troubles me here is that TechRadar’s source is about as reliable as DigiTimes. An unnamed source saying this stuff doesn’t mean much, but whoever the “source” is~~ does seem to have a good understanding of what Microsoft wants to offer in place of Blu-ray; Digital downloads.

“As we have stated, games are what are driving consumers to purchase game consoles and we remain focused on providing the largest library of blockbuster game available.”

Speaking in general (not exclusive to Xbox 360), Microsoft shouldn’t stick to digital downloads at this point because of bandwidth concerns, but it sure wouldn’t shock me if they stuck to that path. They can own everything from end-to-end, digital downloads are exactly what Microsoft wants.

Update: CED just published the same quotes that were directed at them from the Microsoft spokeswoman, so now I'm assuming this is a Microsoft official response.

Sigh, More Xbox 360 Blu-ray Rumors

chrisl — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 13:19:00 GMT

DigiTimes added to the Xbox 360 rumors yesterday (April Fool’s Day), saying that they have a source who says “Lite-On IT is developing built-in Blu-ray Disc-(BD) ROM drives for the Microsoft Xbox 360 game console.”

Today they are sticking by that with another report saying that such an Xbox 360 BD would launch somewhat of a price war because (surprise) Microsoft would have to sell the system at a loss. Yet again, Microsoft says they will “not comment on market rumors.”

I’ve been covering the Xbox 360 Blu-ray rumors longer than I’d like, and such an Xbox 360 still makes no sense. The PS3 is likely to be a better Blu-ray Disc player for a cheaper price, Microsoft doesn’t need to loss money on Blu-ray when they have other issues like RROD to combat, and of course we have Microsoft saying that they are not in talks with the BDA to actually add Blu-ray playback to the Xbox 360.

The Blu-ray drive does nothing without Microsoft actively working with the BDA. Remember, as Blu-ray is not standard on 18 million other Xbox 360s, game developments can’t take advantage of BD media for games. Such an Xbox could only be used for Blu-ray Disc movies, again questioning why you would include it in a new SKU instead of a standalone drive that gives you a starting market of 18 million. A standalone drive isn’t likely to ship many units and still not worth it considering the cost of an Xbox 360+Blu-ray Disc drive being more then a PS3 with Blu-ray integrated.

Even better through, Lite-On is questioning the DigiTimes reports. CED is reporting “Lite-On questioned the accuracy of the reports from Taiwan, its U.S. spokesman told Consumer Electronics Daily Tuesday.” CED was also questioning the motive themselves, “why Microsoft now would consider Blu-ray playback as a built-in feature…” Before anyone asks, no I don’t have a link to CED unless you're going to pay the $1,500/year subscription first.

Update: Xbox 360 Blu-ray Shot Down Again By Microsoft

Microsoft: “Not currently in talks with Sony or the Blu-ray Association”

chrisl — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 03:38:00 GMT

After all of my ramblings, and so many people saying that Microsoft already said they are supporting Blu-ray (despite it being true at all) Microsoft has finally made a statement about Blu-ray and the Xbox 360. Anyone care to guess how it goes?

Aaron Greenberg (Group product manager for Xbox 360) said: "Xbox is not currently in talks with Sony or the Blu-ray Association to integrate Blu-ray into the Xbox experience.”

Greenberg points to furthering digital distribution through the Xbox 360, another topic I have covered. "We're the only console offering digital distribution of entertainment content.”

Comments? I hate to say I told you so, but I think a lot of people were inclided to tell me no more than a week ago.

(Hat tip to Engadget HD)

More Ramblings About Blu-ray & Xbox 360

chrisl — Sat, 08 Mar 2008 14:13:00 GMT

At this point I’m either setting myself my for a huge fall or I’m exactly right, I’ll still let you be the judge of that but the more I think about Microsoft doing Blu-ray for the Xbox 360 (internal, external, new SKU, etc) the more it still doesn’t make any sense.

If you haven’t already, read some of my other posts where I have said that a Blu-Xbox 360 isn’t going to happen. However, it seems that more reports are coming out that are attempting to hint that it will happen. I’ve already covered the post by the The Financial Times, but now the Seattle Post has a quote from Steve Ballmer that people might be taking too far.

"We've already been working on, for example, in Windows, device driver support for Blu-ray drives and the like, and I think the world moves on. Toshiba has moved on. We've moved on, and we'll support Blu-ray in ways that make sense." - SB

A device driver has nothing to do with playback nor does it really fall under the category of “support” like most people are thinking. This simply means that Windows will now recognize the file structure on a Blu-ray Disc and display a BD icon in Windows Explorer (Matt pointed this out in the comments of my post last month).

“We'll support Blu-ray in ways that make sense” is the key statement. I’ve previously run down my reasons why I don’t think it makes sense, but since several people don’t seem to be happy with those here are a few more.

Microsoft sold 300,000 HD DVD add-ons to a potential 18 million Xbox 360 owners. Assuming my math is right, this is less than 2% of owners. People might be “demanding” Blu-ray because it’s a buzzword, but it just doesn’t make sense for Microsoft to support it in the Xbox 360 with such a small market following. As I’ve said before a price cut would most likely be more beneficial here, along with fixing the rising RROD issues (more popular buzzword then Blu-ray).

Another issue is building such a player to spec, something Microsoft will have a hard, or rather near impossible time doing. Unlike HD DVD’s hardware specs (PL1), Blu-ray requires that all players support multichannel PCM out. The Xbox 360 can’t do this with current hardware (no software update fixes that), nor does it have HDMI 1.3 to directly output the bitstream of advanced codec’s like TrueHD. Would the BDA let Microsoft make a player that is not built to spec just because they are Microsoft?

Edit: I've been offered the question if Blu-ray requires players to decode and output LPCM, or just decode (and then say convert to another format). I'm trying to think it through, but I'm really not sure so I might be completely wrong on that point. If decoding is the only required part, then it would work link the current Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on. I mistakingly used output and decoding as one.

I still don’t get it, for those telling me that Microsoft needs Blu-ray to "compete" with the PS3, are you going to buy such a unit at its high price when it can’t output anything better than DTS, when it isn’t built to the latest Blu-ray Profile (or any of them) when the PS3 is still cheaper and can do almost all the above?

Short Bits: Xbox 360 Blu, Cables

chrisl — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 21:57:00 GMT

The Financial Times is reporting that Sony is in talks with Microsoft for Blu-ray on the Xbox 360. I still don’t see the point, and Microsoft is still saying “We have made no such announcement.” Blu-ray on the Xbox 720 makes so much more sense. By the time you develop for the Xbox 360 you’re only going to have a year or so until the next console hits. At this point, I wouldn't buy an Xbox 360 with Blu-ray simply because I might be repaying if the Xbox 720 ships with it too. There are additional reports out that the Xbox 360 will be getting a price drop. A price drop and Blu-ray?

Brent Evans has a good post on where to pickup inexpensive cables online, I strongly agree with his recommendation for Monoprice.com. I’ve ordered from them around a dozen times and will never buy cables retail again.

Fact or Fiction: Microsoft and Blu-ray

chrisl — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 22:26:00 GMT

I’ve gotten a fair amount of reaction to the various articles I’ve posted on Microsoft and Blu-ray, and it still seems the overall consensus on the web is that Microsoft will fall head over heels for Blu-ray in their products.

I want to preface this post by saying that I’m not advocating Microsoft not supporting Blu-ray. The fact is that Blu-ray won, while I think HD DVD had its clear advantages those don’t matter anymore. I want Blu-ray support in any product that markets itself as part of a digital home.

Fiction: Microsoft should support Blu-ray on the Xbox 360

I truly don’t understand why Microsoft would add Blu-ray support to the Xbox 360 at this point. When Microsoft added HD DVD support they did so by adding some four million lines of code to the Dashboard and had Toshiba manufacturer and sell the HD DVD drives at a loss. How do I know it was at a loss? Just look at the fact that the standard IDE drive was selling for far less than any other IDE HD DVD drive on market.

Toshiba didn’t make any money on the 300,000 that were sold and neither did Microsoft. Microsoft took the development time to add support simply to counter Sony including Blu-ray in the PS3. This was an extremely poor counter, but it provided a fairly cheap way for a consumer to add support for a next gen DVD format on their Xbox.

As that was the only real reason, what reason does Microsoft have now to do the same for Blu-ray? The war is over, Blu-ray won. Your not fighting that anymore. The Xbox 360 is nearly two years old with an approximate four year total turn-over time for the next console. Why add Blu-ray in any form to the Xbox 360?

The simple fact is that it’s not in Microsoft’s best interest to provide Blu-ray support in the Xbox 360. The drives are going to be too expensive as there is no reason to sell them at a loss anymore. Pair that with the development time for BD+ and BD-J, two technologies that Microsoft didn’t agree with in the first place and you have a recipe for no Blu-ray on the Xbox 360.

As for internal drives, that’s even worse. Going back to the drawing board, yet again losing money for an integrated drive that can only be used for movie playback. Remember, developers can’t use Blu-ray Disc’s as that you limit your market by some 18 million current Xbox 360’s (Microsoft also wouldn’t allow it either).

I strongly disagree that Microsoft already has some of these things planned and working as Derek Flickinger suggested on CE Pro yesterday. I don’t believe the Xbox 360 will ever have Blu-ray Disc support. As for the Xbox 720 or whatever you want to call it, I think it is too soon to say it won’t but I don’t think you can say it will either.

Fact: Microsoft should support Blu-ray playback on the PC

There is no doubt that Microsoft should support Blu-ray playback on the PC, but as I’ve talked about several times this comes with a major technical concerns.

For native Blu-ray playback to happen in Microsoft applications they will need to update Vista’s Protected Media Path to support BD+. This is a pretty significant change to the system that already supports AACS, the only protection that was needed for HD DVD.

It has always surprised me that BD+ never got the bad press that any other DRM/content protection system does. It runs code in a virtual machine within the player, if that’s not something for the DRM opposed to get upset about I don’t know what is.

The need for BD+ and the equal need for Java-based BD-J interactivity support instead of the Microsoft developed XML-based iHD leaves a huge shadow of doubt about what Microsoft is going to do. No doubt Windows Media Player and Windows Media Center users will suffer from having to use PowerDVD or alike to playback their Blu-ray Disc’s.

This also leaves Media Center and the connected Extender ecosystem in doubt. Managed Copy in the still unfinished AACS specs will give Blu-ray the ability to offer streaming too, but BD+ is still an issue. Microsoft might get burned by the PS3 again as there is a good chance it will be the first product to take advantage of such features.

Fiction: Microsoft should wait for digital downloads

Digital downloads are exactly what Microsoft wants. Why? Because from VC-1 to WMDRM to Silverlight to Windows Server to Windows Vista they can push their products from point A to point B and collect on them all.

The clear problem with this is the lack of bandwidth in the US. Streaming and downloading of large files just isn’t an option for most US broadband users, and no matter how efficient VC-1 is as a video codec. The fact of the matter is US ISPs are holding up streaming being a viable mass market solution.

The best way to explain this is with a graphic from Vudu, another streaming hopeful (via Dave Zatz). As you can see from the graphic, those with broadband connections less then 2Mbps have up to a four hour delayed wait before they can start enjoying an HD download. It should also be noted that the audio/video quality provided in these sorts of streams just can’t match what Blu-ray has been delivering for the past year. Highly quality means higher bitrates with means larger file size which means longer download times.

Those ISPs that do have the bandwidth (>10Mbps) charge a pretty penny when compared to a basic lower bitrate DSL connection. Are customers willing to both pay high dollar for an Internet connection and then pay high dollar for an HD download that it many cases has to be watched within 24 hours? There is still a lot of work that has to be done before digital downloads can replace physical media for good.

Of course, itshould be noted that digital downloads already exist using Microsoft technologies. The Xbox 360 has downloads via the Xbox Marketplace and the same basic concepts from above apply in terms of download times and bitrates. Many are waiting for Microsoft to extend the reach of the Marketplace downloads to Windows Media Center (and thus Media Center Extenders) as well portable devices like the Zune.

Related:

More Ramblings About Blu-ray & Xbox 360

Blu-ray on Xbox 360 Not Going to Happen

chrisl — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 17:31:00 GMT

Some websites are reporting “rumors” of Microsoft getting ready to add Blu-ray support to the Xbox 360. I’m not going to link to the main website in question, because nothing on that site has ever been true (unless there is an Xbox 360 with HD DVD intergated out there, it was said to be true by this website on at least three different occasions. There are several other false stories out of this site too).

Jason Unger of CE Pro does have the basic rundown of the issue, but don’t believe that Blu-ray is on the way to the Xbox 360.

Among the reasons behind this are outlined in a previous post I wrote about support in Media Center. All of these issues apply for the Xbox 360 as well.

Quickly…

Blu-ray support means adding a Java-based BD-J interactivity layer to the Xbox 360. Highly doubtful to ever happen
The video/audio codecs are not really in question here, both HD DVD and Blu-ray use the same basic codecs.
Blu-ray has extra DRM in BD+. The Xbox 360 can already do AACS, but they are not going to add BD+ support. Microsoft has been opposed to it from the start.

I really wish more respected sites like Engadget would stop linking to well known false stories and publishers.

Related:

Fact or Fiction: Microsoft and Blu-ray

More Ramblings About Blu-ray & Xbox 360