An Adobe employee gives numbers a whole new meaning...

Sometimes it can be fun to take things out of context and totally twist the data to meet your own needs.

Sometimes you just look like a fool when you try it.

John Dowell at Adobe did just that by running a test with 4500 consumers. Seriously John, i hope this was a joke? no?

John decided to make statistics work in a favourable way and decided that 4500 subjects to test could be extrapolated to represent the entire world...4500?? honestly John. Had you said 45000 or even 450.000 then you would have been closer..close, but no cigar.

Realworld HD H.264 support: In March, 4500 consumers were tested for viewing different types of media files. 2780 of them had already installed Adobe Flash Player 9.0.115. That's 62% of today's computers, supporting no-hassle high definition playback of H.264 video. Considering this browser plugin was released in December, and the audit was conducted in March, then it's an easy choice for realworld use today. (Same goes for the persistent framework caching in Flex 3, too.) [via Justin Everett-Church]

Of course, he didn't do this study all by himself but (imho) trusted the statistics that was generated by a third party.

What amazes me is that this wasn't a joke...no, John is 100% convinced that 4500 represents all consumers and that it's an accurate enough percentage to cover everything.

Here's a link to John's "report": JD on EP: Realworld HD H.264 support

next?

 

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Published Thu, Apr 17 2008 7:44 by Brian Madsen
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Comments

# re: An Adobe employee gives numbers a whole new meaning...

Wednesday, April 16, 2008 6:30 PM by Mr Speaker

Lies, damn lies, and statistics maybe... buuut, I did pretty bad at my "Introduction To Statistics" course at uni, but the only thing that I remember was that if the sample population is picked truly at random then you only need a very very small sample size to get an accurate result.

That's how they can tell that Channel Ten had 1000 more viewers than Channel Seven last night, even though they only distribute a couple of hundred set-top box thingo-s all around Australia! (and that's why no one you know has ever had one of those set top box thingo-s)

# re: An Adobe employee gives numbers a whole new meaning...

Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:19 PM by d1

Hi Brian,

So, do you know what would represent a statistically valid sample size?

When I look at a wide range of polls and consumer research (see, for example, Gallup.com) they typically have smaller sample sizes and margins of error around say +/- 3%. That makes JD's numbers seem pretty reasonable.  Given your adamance here, do you know how to calculate the margin of error here so we can know if it really is or isn't a valid sample?  Anyone?

[Brian sez: anynomity is excellent. If you have something to say, don't be daft and omit your name. Stand by your comment]

# re: An Adobe employee gives numbers a whole new meaning...

Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:38 PM by Brian Madsen

Hi Anonymous commentor...

As this is my personal opinion which i'm expressing - not necessarily a opinion which can (or rather which i feel a need to) be backed up witha scientific statement - i don't really know what would constitute a valid sample data but did suggest that a larger number would be more appropriate.

Regardless, it's a personal opinion and eventhough i'm "slightly" biased in this discussion (hence me posting it on my blog rather than as a comment on JD's blog) and i'll still stand by my statement. I don't have to back it up with science - i do have a life as well.

# re: An Adobe employee gives numbers a whole new meaning...

Thursday, April 17, 2008 4:52 AM by Glenn Williams

I think the down-load numbers for Adobe Flash Player 9.0.115 above are a better indication. As they are easy to keep track of. I surprised he didn't use those. Gives a much better indication, and are very healthy. MS like to say they are getting 1.2Million downs of silverlight per day. not bad, but still playing catch up to flash (by about 10/1 I think - don't quote me on this).

is this the survey you are talking about?

www.adobe.com/.../methodology

I do agree that small samples mean very little, but as the methodology documents shows this is understood an after all it is excepted practice.

well 9 out of 10 cats prefer it. :-) (not sure if you have that tv ad in US, so that may be lost on you) :)

PS - i have no bias silverlight\flashplayer - I just want them to keep fighting and worrying about each other - that way we as developers are the winners. the VMs can only keep getting better.

# re: An Adobe employee gives numbers a whole new meaning...

Thursday, April 17, 2008 5:26 PM by Brian Madsen

Hey Glenn,

First off, nice to see somebody big enough to put their name to a comment ;)

I agree with you and will further comment. IMHO, if you want to depicture a specific outcome from a survey it should be geared towards it rather than having some data-mining monkey come up with 101 possible angles of interpretation. I personally hate it when survey companies call me and don't tell me exactly that the questions are for.

Anyways, flash/silverlight fighting is defintely good for business for us dev monkeys...without a doubt we are the winners in this.

But in saying that, i also like to see the cats play nicely with eachother - it doesn't have to be a case of one or the other. I've seen some excellent posts from (for instance) Scott Barnes, on technologies playing well together - Adobe/Microsoft/Apple...and for adoption to be truely effective it has to be inclusive rather than exclusive - a point which I believe MSFT is getting much, much better at.

On a final point, i'm not in the US ;) but in Australia..Perth, Western Australia to be exact.

Thanks for stopping by!

# re: An Adobe employee gives numbers a whole new meaning...

Friday, April 18, 2008 10:20 PM by anonymous commenter, using my own name - fool

I had this comment posted today for this blog entry...

Another fool imho..being so obviously stupid to put my own name in as the poster instead of his own name. How sad is that.

i'll say it again (because some people obviously need it repeated), if you want to comment and not be ridiculed, leave your name as well..don't be such a little girl and use a anonymous name, or put my own name into the entry..feel free to pity me some more..moron..

Anyways, here's the entry that was posted: 

Brian you are ignorant, ill-informed, arrogant and don't have the brains to realise when your are shouting your mouth off and making yourself look a fool. I pity you. Go and read an intro to statistics before you profess to be an expert.

Now, lets review my own comment...i stated it was a personal opinion and that it wasn't backed up by scientific fact..so, in fact, i didn't profess to be an expert.

you can feel free to pity me all you like - at least i stand by my own name and doesn't sneak over like another baby..Who's the tosser now?

# re: An Adobe employee gives numbers a whole new meaning...

Monday, April 21, 2008 4:30 PM by Glenn Williams

totally agree.

developers are on the same sides. let the corp fight it out. what's it to us anyway?

as long as the platforms are growing and the feature set keeps getting richer, then who cares.

my computer is better than your computer is getting SO old. (although, my computer is better than your computer, ive got a VIC20 and a tonne of wicked tapes. LOL)

g